A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
