Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
